Archive - Real World Cyber

Cybersecurity's Blind Spot: Trusting the Wrong Kind of Probability

There is a critical difference between ensemble probability and time probability in the real world. If we get it wrong then it can cripple our security…

Mar 24 •

Risk Severity Levels Do More Harm Than Good

The information lost in modeling risk in qualitative severity levels is not made up for with the value it provides.

Mar 2 •

February 2025

Thinking in Graphs for Defenders

Bringing clarity to the "Defenders think in lists while Attackers think in graphs” adage

Feb 23 •

Risk: The False Prophet of Cybersecurity Decision-making

Model errors are poisoning your risk metric leading to worse decision-making

Feb 16 •

February 2024

Beware The Normal Distribution When Modeling Cybersecurity Data

The normal distribution is a core assumption in many statistical models that can poison the results of our statistical and ML cybersecurity models if we…

Feb 13, 2024 •

January 2024

Why All Security Engineers Should Learn Calculus (Part One: Derivatives)

What started as an exercise in understanding ML and Data Science expanded my view on how we can use calculus to make better decisions in cybersecurity.

Jan 25, 2024 •

Be Careful Borrowing From The Insurance Industry

Cybersecurity borrows many insurance models and analogies in an attempt to manage risk. However, this can be dangerous if assumptions are not fully…

Jan 17, 2024 •

This is Real World Cyber.

Jan 14, 2024 •

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